While I continue working and thinking about the various Senate races, Charlie Cook writes that he feels the likely hood of a Republican takeover of the Senate is growing in possibility:
For much of this year, it seemed a near mathematical impossibility that Republicans could score the 10-seat net gain needed to flip the Senate, which is split between 59 Democrats (including two independents who caucus with Democrats and largely vote with the party) and 41 Republicans. As recently as six weeks ago, I wrote in a CongressDailyAM column that a GOP win was “certainly possible” but “still fairly unlikely.” Although the “fairly unlikely” part is still valid, the possibility of a GOP takeover is growing.
Without going into detail of individual races, I think there are several arguments against a GOP takeover of the Senate. And while it’s always possible that the sentiment could continue to grow and precipitate a GOP Senate, I have some serious doubts.
1) The Enthusiasm gap. Republicans are fired up, Democrats aren’t, and a lot of the polls are picking up on this lack of enthusiasm on the part of the Democrats. However I think the gap can and will be closed significantly by GOTV operations that will help persuade unenthusiastic Democrats to get out there and vote.
1a) A Fear Factor. In addition to GOTV operations, you have a deep seated worry among groups of people that a Republican Party takeover will be a very bad event. As such, people who otherwise wouldn’t bother to vote, may get out and vote against the Republican party.
2) Tea Party Fatigue. Ironically, the very fact that enthusiasm is so high could work against the Republican party. Both by motivating people to stop the Republicans (see 1a) and maintaining that level of enthusiasm for another 2 will be extremely difficult. Mind you, there could be other events that continue to whip the Republican party into a frenzy, but assuming that nothing else significant happens, you could see that enthusiasm wane.
3) Control of the Narrative. Things have been a perfect storm for the Democrats. The economy is still weak, there have been events that motivate the Republican base (Park 51, terror anchor babies) and the Democrats have had problems from their left flank because the hard core Democrats are angry that more hasn’t been done to promote their agenda. If the Democrats can actually take the time to point out what they have been able to accomplish, and wrench control of the narrative and point out that the accomplishments could be in danger if the Republicans gain control of the House and Senate, they’ll be able to work on the enthusiasm gap.
4) Independents… aren’t. The Republican party has had a declining percentage over the last 4 – 6 years, with a number of Tea party activists refusing to identify as Republican and instead declaring themselves to be independent; even though most of them will vote Republican in the election. So, do you count them as independent, Republican? Having a higher percentage of people decide to self identify as Independent, even if they vote Republican leads to all sorts of issues, which leads to…
4a) Pollster fun. This leads to a really tricky problem for pollsters. After all, I believe most likely voter models are based on the idea that turn out for the current election will track relatively close to the turn out of previous elections. This number is then massaged by a likely voter model. If the pollsters aren’t careful, pollsters run the risk of over counting Republican turnout and/or over counting Independent votes for Republicans.
Of course, ultimately, with the economy still struggling, it’s going to be difficult for the Party in office to win, no matter who was responsible for the tanking of the economy in the first place. If you’re in charge and things are bad, you get blamed. Is that enough to push the House and Senate to Republican control? It depends on how long the memories of people are, and if they’re willing to give Obama, and the Democrats, more time.
Tags: Election, Political, bloodstar by bloodstar
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